How Real-Time Win Probabilities Are Calculated in NBA and Formula 1Peninsulacommunityhealth Bigbicepsshop Image source: Unsplash You’re watching an NBA game, and your team is leading by 12 points with five minutes remaining. A graphic appears showing an 88% chance of winning. Two minutes later, the opposition scores several baskets, and that percentage suddenly drops. Something similar happens in Formula 1. A driver makes a pit stop, and television viewers immediately see an estimate of whether they’ll catch the car ahead. […]